[SMM Daily Review] Shanghai Copper Shanghai Zinc slightly uplink Shanghai Nickel late diving Black Series Red crude Oil rose 1.1%

SMM12 27: most of today's non-ferrous metals narrow shock, but Shanghai nickel fell 2.11%. Shanghai zinc has been volatile since the jump this morning. According to SMM today, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM Seven places was 114400 tons, down 5100 tons from Monday (December 23) and up 1100 tons from last Friday (December 23). "[SMM data] the social inventory of zinc ingots in SMM Seven places increased by 1100 tons from last Friday and 74100 tons of zinc ingots in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone as of Friday (December 27), down 800 tons from last week. In the aspect of lead, the latest research results show that the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead smelter is 59.6%; the operating rate of Henan primary lead smelter is 70.3%, which is 0.4% lower than that of the same period; the operating rate of Yunnan primary lead smelter is 43.8%; the operating rate of Hunan primary lead smelter is 51.6%. "[SMM survey] Henan orange early warning upgrade weekly operation rate decreased slightly compared with the same period.

Black series rose throughout the day, iron ore and thread rose more than 1.1%, bifocal also rose slightly. SMM expects short-term steel spot trend or regional differentiation, but more likely to stop falling and stabilizing. In addition, the subsequent reduction in expectations, coupled with the repair base near delivery, may cause steel futures to fluctuate strongly next week. Iron ore, this period of time or look at the steel winter storage and replenishment, as long as there is no strict production restrictions and other major bearish iron ore is still easy to rise and difficult to fall. "[SMM analysis] production restriction, lifting of winter storage and heating up, and then pushing the rise of the black system as a whole.

Crude oil rose 1.12% in the previous period. In the short term, oil market momentum remains positive, although we believe most traders are still on the sidelines today, according to senior market analysts at OANDA. Oil prices rose on Friday, hitting a three-month high after data showing record online sales for the US holiday boosted investor confidence in the outlook for US economic growth. And the market hopes that the first phase of the trade agreement between China and the United States will also help to end the trade dispute between the two countries.

As of today's daytime close:

As of 16:50, the new US dollar denominated small metals contracts on the HKEx are as follows:

Today's capital flow

Capital flows, agricultural products get more capital attention, soft commodity plate inflow of 921 million funds, cotton has not been rising for a long time to attract 724 million capital inflows. Palm oil hit a new high in the phase, with $520 million in funding. In industrial products, black funds fled, the black chain index lost 329 million funds, and the non-ferrous and chemical sectors absorbed 439 million and 355 million funds respectively.

Brief comment of SMM analyst on December 27th

Copper: today, the Shanghai copper main contract 2002 opened in the morning at 49680 yuan / ton, opening around the daily average near the shock, the center of gravity hovering between 4963049740 yuan / ton, until the end of the afternoon; in the afternoon Shanghai copper short-term winding near the daily average line, near the end of the day slightly fluctuated to the highest point of 49780 yuan / ton, the end of the day closed at 49730 yuan / ton, up 90 yuan / ton, up 0.18%. Shanghai copper main contract position basically unchanged, only increased by 78 hands to 284000 hands, trading volume decreased by 29000 hands to 125000 hands. Shanghai Copper 2003 contract position increased by 13000 hands to 188000 hands, mainly for the long increase in positions. Shanghai copper index position increased by 12000 hands to 667000 hands, mainly for the long increase; trading volume decreased by 51000 hands to 264000 hands, from the position changes, the long still control the main trend of the market. Today, Shanghai copper continued to maintain a stable and high position, mainly due to the strong performance of domestic industrial enterprise profit data released this morning, increased expectations of the superposition market for the central bank reduction, and a steady improvement in the domestic economic atmosphere. At the same time, after the closure of the market this morning, Lun copper jumped high on the first trading day, and the long atmosphere of copper was strong, which provided support for the high stability of the copper station in shanghai. At present, Shanghai copper has closed 4 consecutive days, and has accounted for all the moving average above, waiting for the outer plate at night to test whether Shanghai copper can continue to stand steady near 49700 yuan / ton.

Lead: within the day, Shanghai lead 2002 contract opened at 15200 yuan / ton, the whole day to the daily average bottom shock, and the amplitude of less than 50 yuan / ton, finally closed at 15235 yuan / ton, position reduced by 2328 hands to 56590 hands. Shanghai lead closed at the Xiao Yang line, although the 5-day moving average maintained an upward trend, but the upward force of Shanghai lead has been insufficient, coupled with entering the European period, the outer plate lead weakened, it is expected that the night will promote the Shanghai lead test below the 5-day moving average support.

Zinc: intraday Shanghai zinc main force 2002 contract opened at 17865 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, Shanghai zinc fell slightly and explored as low as 17825 yuan / ton, the lower 17800 yuan / ton integer gave Shanghai zinc certain support, Shanghai zinc stopped falling and rebounded, and fluctuated in a narrow range near 17870 yuan / ton. With the recent counter-cyclical regulation policy, market confidence gradually recovered, Shanghai zinc rapidly pulled up, breaking the above 5 and 20 moving averages and narrow banners near 17940 yuan / ton. At the end of the day, Shanghai zinc continued its strong trend, closing down at 17960 yuan / ton, up 120 yuan / ton from yesterday's close, an increase of 0.67% in trading volume by 31508 hands to 207000 hands, and a decrease in position volume by 12152 hands to 181000 hands. Within days, Shanghai zinc turned negative and closed yang, suppressed by the upper ten thousand eight gates, the MACD red column was slightly elongated, the KDJ index turned upwards, the superimposed macro environment was warmer, and the market expectations of the central bank's reduction of accuracy increased, indicating that Shanghai zinc may have some room to rise. Pay attention to the pressure level at the ten thousand eight gate at night.

Updating.

Recommended reading: [SMM Senior expert: Zou Youchang-Steel Winter Storage Special report] Multi-dimensional verification of winter storage prices and operation recommendations

Scan QR code, apply to join SMM metal communication group, please indicate company + name + main business